Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.377340 3.660137 3.983002 4.386073 4.887045 5.506494 6.362315
2025-02-16 3.019933 3.380085 3.823485 4.432697 5.293547 6.561537 8.844613
2025-02-23 2.729331 3.104706 3.585308 4.281932 5.347235 7.123403 11.178170
2025-03-02 2.576201 2.972470 3.497974 4.299111 5.626566 8.177787 16.506465
2025-03-09 2.449079 2.855664 3.409318 4.287556 5.844428 9.271719 27.951793
2025-03-16 2.322131 2.725414 3.283822 4.192771 5.880385 10.001784 55.446012
2025-03-23 2.265809 2.685523 3.281606 4.291935 6.317202 12.340924 NaN
2025-03-30 2.158696 2.566174 3.149387 4.150516 6.208503 12.795973 NaN
2025-04-06 2.059808 2.452743 3.017627 3.994380 6.032032 12.857255 NaN
2025-04-13 1.984525 2.369026 2.925443 3.898175 5.973755 13.456585 NaN
2025-04-20 1.956691 2.351503 2.933082 3.980926 6.365709 17.334533 NaN
2025-04-27 1.952972 2.368198 2.994783 4.172541 7.127454 30.231192 NaN
2025-05-04 1.912071 2.329650 2.967982 4.196219 7.461248 51.127478 NaN
2025-05-11 1.876821 2.297838 2.950060 4.236345 7.883399 296.809175 NaN
2025-05-18 1.813782 2.221108 2.852470 4.098918 7.642977 377.350938 NaN
2025-05-25 1.781195 2.189282 2.828322 4.114537 7.972596 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.746728 2.152961 2.794085 4.104007 8.207653 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.702580 2.100027 2.728521 4.017543 8.101720 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.688681 2.093137 2.741580 4.107996 8.816710 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.642894 2.034947 2.662258 3.978936 8.459141 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.596877 1.975355 2.578717 3.835940 8.016607 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.560985 1.930778 2.520142 3.747567 7.822644 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.551491 1.927037 2.532624 3.823593 8.444868 NaN NaN